TRENDS IN ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION ENERGY AND EMISSIONS
DR. H. CHRISTOPHER FREY
Glenn E. and Phyllis J. Futrell Distinguished University Professor, Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
20 JULY 2018 (FRIDAY)
ROOM 6-12B, HAKING WONG BUILDING, HKU
JOINTLY ORGANIZED BY:
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong
Institute of Transport Studies, The University of Hong Kong
Globally, 1.3 billion on-road vehicles consume 79 quadrillion BTU of energy, mostly gasoline and diesel fuels, emit 5.7 gigatonnes of CO2, and emit other pollutants to which approximately 200,000 annual premature deaths are attributed. Improved vehicle energy efficiency and emission controls have helped offset growth in vehicle activity. New technologies are diffusing into the vehicle fleet in response to fuel efficiency and emission standards. The global vehicle fleet will experience tremendous growth, especially in Asia. Although existing data and modeling tools are useful, they are often based on convenience samples, small sample sizes, large variability, and unquantified uncertainty. Gasoline and diesel are likely to persist as key energy sources to mid-century. Adoption of electric vehicles is not a panacea with regard to greenhouse gas emissions unless coupled with policies to change the power generation mix. Depending on how they are actually implemented and used, autonomous vehicles could lead to very large reductions or increases in energy consumption. Numerous other trends are addressed with regard to technology, emissions controls, vehicle operations, emission measurements, impacts on exposure, and impacts on public health. Without specific policies to the contrary, fossil fuels are likely to continue to be the major source of on-road vehicle energy consumption. Fuel economy and emission standards are generally effective in achieving reductions per unit of vehicle activity. However, the number of vehicles and miles traveled will increase. Total energy use and emissions depend on factors such as fuels, technologies, land use, demographics, economics, road design, vehicle operation, societal values, and others that affect demand for transportation, mode choice, energy use, and emissions. Thus, there are many opportunities to influence future trends in vehicle energy use and emissions.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER:
Dr. Frey conducts research on measurement and modeling of the activity, energy use, and emissions of onroad and nonroad vehicles, and regarding human exposure to air pollution. He chaired the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and currently serves on the EPA Science Advisory Board. He has also served in expert and advisory roles for the National Research Council, the World Health Organization, and the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, and contributed to a report to the U.S. Congress on Transportation’s Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions. He is a Fellow of the Air & Waste Management Association and a Fellow and past president of the Society for Risk Analysis. He is a visiting professor in the Division of Environment and Sustainability at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His degrees include B.S. Mechanical Engineering from the University of Virginia, Master of Engineering in Mechanical Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University, and PhD in Engineering and Public Policy from Carnegie Mellon University.