URBAN TRAVEL FORECASTING: A 50 YEAR RETROSPECTIVE

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SPEAKER:

PROFESSOR DAVID BOYCE

Adjunct Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, USA


DATE:

15 DECEMBER 2011 (THURSDAY)


TIME:

19:00 - 20:00


VENUE:

WANG GUNGWU THEATRE, GRADUATE HOUSE, THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG


ORGANIZED BY:

Institute of Transport Studies, The University of Hong Kong


ABSTRACT:

The field of urban travel forecasting in the United States began in the early 1950s, when the first urban transportation plan was prepared. Methods for forecasting urban travel developed quickly, in conjunction with the first mainframe computers available for civilian use, and were soon exported to Britain, Europe and beyond. Today, urban travel forecasting is a highly developed field of academic study within civil engineering, economics, geography, operations research, regional science and urban planning, and a primary focus of several academic and professional journals, organizations, societies and software development firms, as well as public agencies and consultants. In 2003, Professor Huw Williams and I began to prepare a history of this field, which examines the subject from three distinct perspectives: theory and practice; network analysis and discrete choice analysis; the United States and the United Kingdom. In this seminar, I shall present our principal findings and insights, and trace the history of the main developments by innovators and the context of their achievements, especially with respect to computers and software. Finally, I shall draw discuss what has not yet been achieved, and identify opportunities for future research and practice.


ABOUT THE SPEAKER:

Dr. David Boyce, P.E., is an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering of Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, and Professor Emeritus of Transportation and Regional Science in the Department of Civil and Materials Engineering of the University of Illinois at Chicago. He presently conducts research on urban travel and location forecasting models, transportation network assignment methods, and the history of urban travel forecasting methods and practice. One of his long-term research interests concerns the formulation, implementation, estimation and validation of large-scale, integrated models of urban travel behavior, as an alternative to the traditional multi-step travel forecasting procedure. Professor Boyce was a tenured faculty member of the University of Pennsylvania (1966-77), the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (1977-88), and the University of Illinois at Chicago (1988-2003). In 2000 he was awarded the Founder's Medal of the Regional Science Association International (RSAI) in recognition of his research achievements; in 2002, he was elected a Fellow of the RSAI. In 2003, he received the Robert Herman Lifetime Achievement Award of the Transportation Science and Logistics Section of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). He also received the INFORMS Fellows Award in 2003, and the Fellows Award of the American Society of Civil Engineers in 2009.

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MODE TRANSITION IN A PUBLIC TRANSIT ROUTE AND RELATED ISSUES OF CAPACITY, SPEED AND WAITING TIME

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SPEAKER:

PROFESSOR S.C. (CHAN) WIRASINGHE

Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Canada


DATE:

07 NOVEMBER 2011 (MONDAY)


TIME:

19:00 - 20:00


VENUE:

WANG GUNGWU THEATRE, GRADUATE HOUSE, THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG


ORGANIZED BY:

Institute of Transport Studies, The University of Hong Kong


ABSTRACT:

As a transit route evolves with time (over several decades) due to land use and other changes, the public transit mode (or mix of modes) that serves it may have to transition from one to another several times. Two of the characteristics that must be considered in the transition are the capacity and average speed of each mode. They impact the passenger waiting times and in-vehicle travel times respectively, as well as operating costs. Data on observed maximum flows and average speeds of routes have been collected from sources worldwide and analyzed. In addition to intrinsic variations, there is scatter in the data caused in part by lack of information about some aspects. For example, information on transit priority at traffic signals that influences average speed is not available in all cases. A discussion of where passenger "waiting time" is spent, and its relationship to the (i) type of service, and (ii) trip purpose, and (iii) availability of real time bus arrival information is given. Various modes considered suitable for the South Calgary corridor are ranked in terms of the line capacity and average speed. The thresholds are those at which a mode transition is essential. However, mode transitions may occur well in advance of such thresholds if a new modal mix is optimal for the corridor in terms of minimizing the sum of the costs to the users and the operator. An early transition is from a regular (all-stop) bus route to a route served by both regular and limited-stop buses, sometimes called bus rapid transit (BRT). Some results on the mix of regular and limited-stop bus services in a given route are discussed, including the transit system parameters under which a transition from regular bus to a mix is optimal. It is argued that passenger-Km's is the right measure of travel demand that should be considered. A simple expression and methodology applicable to any bus route is presented.


ABOUT THE SPEAKER:

Chan Wirasinghe obtained his B.Sc. in Civil Engineering from the University of Ceylon (now the University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka) in 1968. He won a US Fulbright Scholarship to study transportation engineering at the University of California at Berkeley and completed his MS in 1973 and Ph.D. in 1976. He joined the University of Calgary in Canada in 1976 as an Assistant Professor. He is currently a Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering, and the Academic Director of the Center for Transportation of the Van Horne Institute. Dr. Wirasinghe became the founding Associate Dean (Research) in the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Calgary in 1988. He became Dean of the Faculty in January 1994 and held the post until July 2006. In 2005, he led the naming of the Faculty as the Schulich School of Engineering for a total matched donation of $50M. Dr. Wirasinghe's research interests are in urban public transportation, airports, transport in developing countries and mitigation of natural disasters. He has over 200 publications & keynote presentations, and has supervised 12 PhD's, 4 PDF's and 11 Master's to completion. He is currently supervising 5 PhD and 2 MSc students. He has written extensively on bus, LRT and metro planning and operations. Dr. Wirasinghe is the Co-Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Advanced Transportation. He is currently writing a book titled Transit Systems - Analysis and Planning. He received the Alberta Premiers Award of Excellence in 2000, a D.Sc. (Honoris Causa) from the University of Moratuwa in 2001, and the APEGGA Centennial Award, APEGGA's highest honor, in 2004. He was named Calgary's Citizen of the Year for 2005. He is a Fellow of the Canadian Academy of Engineering, the Canadian Society of Civil Engineers, & an Honorary Fellow of the Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka, Engineers Canada and the Canadian Society of Senior Engineers. Chan Wirasinghe serves on the Council of NSERC (an Order in Council appointment) and on the Council of APEGGA (an elected position).

MIXED LAND USES AND SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

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SPEAKER:

PROFESSOR ROBERT CERVERO

Professor, Department of City & Regional Planning; Director, University of California Transportation Center; Director, Institute of Urban & Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley, USA


DATE:

27 APRIL 2011 (WEDNESDAY)


TIME:

19:00 - 20:00


VENUE:

KWAN FONG LECTURE THEATRE, ROOM 223, 2/F KNOWLES BUILDING, THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG


ORGANIZED BY:

Institute of Transport Studies, The University of Hong Kong


ABSTRACT:

Inter-mixing land uses and balancing urban growth can yield significant demand- and supply-side benefits to the transport sector. Recent research shows that the co-location of retail, workplace, and residential uses in master-planned developments increase internal capture rates. Global cities like Stockholm and Curitiba reveal that efficiencies occur through encouraging bi-directional travel flows. Balanced growth also shrinks environmental footprints by shortening trips and encouraging non-motorized access. Hedonic price model results for several mixed-use settings reveal that real-estate markets capitalize such benefits. Supply-side benefits of inter-mixing land uses include opportunities for shared parking and reduced impervious surfaces for roads and highways. Ancillary benefits, such as energy savings from co-generation and co-sharing of heating and electricity by residential and commercial uses, are also possible with mixed-use development. A Green TOD (Transit Oriented Development) model is presented in this regard. The talk concludes by addressing possible motivations for separating urban activities, as embodied in contemporary zoning and land-use regulatory practices, including social and class exclusion and perceptions of non-compatibility among uses. Mechanisms for overcoming barriers to mixed land uses are offered.


ABOUT THE SPEAKER:

Robert Cervero works in the area of sustainable transport policy and planning. His current research is on the economic benefits of balancing infrastructure investments with place-making. He is a frequent advisor and consultant on transport projects, both in the U.S. and abroad. Professor Cervero was the first-ever recipient of the Dale Prize for Excellence in Urban Planning Research and has twice won the Article of the Year award from the Journal of the American Planning Association. Presently, he is Chairman of the International Association of Urban Environments and the National Advisory Board of the Active Living Research Program of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Professor Cervero was recently appointed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), responsible for the human settlement chapter of the 5th IPCC assessment. He is also an author of the forthcoming 2013 Global Report on Sustainable Transportation for the UN-Habitat. Professor Cervero currently serves on the editorial boards of 10 scholarly journals.

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