There is at least a popular belief that major
transport infrastructure projects give rise to benefits which are not
captured in conventional investment appraisal. The building of a metro
network, a major airport or a high speed rail line will have
ramifications which go beyond the simple measurement of time savings or
reductions in accidents. However, substantiating the idea with a
methodology which is both theoretically sound and empirically
applicable has proved challenging. Approaches have been refined in
recent years and the empirical evidence has become more robust and
convincing, showing that any such impacts need not always be
beneficial. However, the adoption of formal measures of such impacts in
official appraisal procedures has been much less widely implemented
leaving decisions on major transport investments open to less
scientific arguments for and against. This presentation will review the
arguments for consideration of wider impacts and their treatment. It
concludes with recommendations for the development of transparent
procedures to ensure consistent treatment of such impacts.
About the Speaker
Roger Vickerman is Dean of the University of
Kent's, Brussels Campus. He is also Professor of European Economics at
the University of Kent and Director of the Centre for European,
Regional and Transport Economics.
Educated at the Universities of Cambridge and Sussex, he has an
Honorary Doctorate from the Philipps-Universitat, Marburg; he is an
Academician of Academy of Social Sciences; a Fellow of the Royal
Society of Arts and a Chartered Fellow of the Chartered Institute of
Logistics and Transport. He has been a visiting professor in Canada,
Germany, Hungary and Australia.
Professor Vickerman's research focuses on the relationship between
transport (especially infrastructure), regional development and
integration in the European Union. He is particularly known for his
studies on major infrastructure projects, particularly the EU's
Trans-European Networks. He has served as a member of SACTRA (Standing
Committee on Trunk Road Assessment), as an advisor to Committees of
both the House of Commons and House of Lords in the UK Parliament and
acted as a consultant to the European Commission, various UK government
departments and regional and local government authorities. He is
currently a member of the Analytical Challenge Panel to HS2 Ltd which
advises the UK Government on the development of high-speed rail. He is
the author of 6 books (including the textbook Principles of Transport
Economics, with Emile Quinet) and over 150 chapters, journal articles
and reports. He has edited the Handbook of Transport Economics (Edward
Elgar, 2011) with Andre de Palma, Robin Lindsey and Emile Quinet, which
brings together state of the art reviews from over 50 of the world's
leading transport economists. He sits on the editorial boards of
several journals in both transport and regional science and is Editor
in Chief of Transport Policy.
Please click <here>
to download the presentation file.
Vehicle crashes and resulting injuries continue to
take a terrible economic and emotional toll on societies worldwide.
Given these adverse impacts, the analysis of accident data has long
been used as a basis for developing appropriate countermeasures that
seek to reduce the frequency and severity of transportation accidents.
However, accident data present many complex methodological challenges
that are often overlooked by transportation agencies and researchers.
These methodological challenges include factors relating to unobserved
heterogeneity (resulting from the fact traditional databases do not
have information on all of the factors influencing accidents),
endogeneity and self selectivity (a reflection that accident outcomes
are often tied to interrelated processes and decisions), and temporal
and spatial correlations (the possibility that accidents may be tied
over time and space). In this talk, I will provide numerous examples of
these methodological challenges (drawn from a variety of past studies)
to show the subtleties of the issues involved, and how these subtleties
can affect the inferences drawn from the data if not addressed in a
methodologically appropriate way. I will also discuss how
methodological challenges will persist with emerging data sources (such
as those from naturalist driving and simulator studies), and give an
assessment of potentially fruitful directions for methodological
development in accident research.
About the Speaker
Fred Mannering is currently the Charles Pankow
Professor of Civil Engineering at Purdue University with a courtesy
appointment in the Department of Economics. He received his BSCE from
the University of Saskatchewan, MSCE from Purdue University and PhD
from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Mannering's
expertise is in the application of statistical and econometric methods
to study a variety of subject areas including highway safety,
transportation economics, automobile demand, and travel behavior. His
body of work has been highly influential and has been cited over
twenty-five hundred times in the Institute for Scientific Information
(ISI) databases, over twenty-five hundred times in Scopus, and over
five thousand times in Google Scholar. Dr. Mannering has published over
100 refereed journal articles, 2 text books, over 60 other publications
(conference proceedings, project reports, book reviews and
commentaries), and has given over 120 invited lectures and
presentations at professional conferences.
His undergraduate textbook, "Principles of Highway Engineering and
Traffic Analysis" is now in its fifth edition and has sold over 40,000
copies. He has been principal investigator on 38 funded research
projects and has supervised 21 PhD students and 43 MS students. Dr.
Mannering has been Editor-in-Chief of Transportation Research Part B:
Methodological since 2003. The Journal's 2.856 citation impact factor
is currently first among transportation journals (ISI Web of Knowledge,
2011, Journal Citation Reports Social Science Edition) and fourth
highest (second highest when excluding self cites) among 118 Civil
Engineering journals (ISI Web of Knowledge, 2011, Journal Citation
Reports Science Edition). Dr. Mannering's awards include: Arthur M.
Wellington Prize, American Society of Civil Engineers, for the best
paper in the Journal of Transportation Engineering (2010); James Laurie
Prize, American Society of Civil Engineers (2009) "For his outstanding
contribution to the advancement of transportation engineering through
his influential research and publication in the area of highway
safety"; Wilbur S. Smith Award, American Society of Civil Engineers
(2005) "For outstanding contributions to the enhancement of the role of
the civil engineer in highway engineering through excellence in
teaching and research"; National Highway Safety Award (2001) for "A new
method for prioritizing intersection improvements"; Harold Munson Award
for outstanding teaching, Purdue University (2007); CHOICE Magazine's
Outstanding Academic Books Award (1991) for "Principles of Highway
Engineering and Traffic Analysis" first edition.
Please click <here>
to download the presentation file.